BETWEEN A FORSAKEN POLITICAL GODSON SEEKING A 2ND TERM & HIS ESTRANGED GODFATHER
Response to A Friend’s Analysis by: Femi Afolabi-Peters.
Spot on analysis by you, dear brother.
Permit me to embellish your brilliant analysis with the following :
when the cookie crumbles, the cheerleaders and professional politicians will abandon Obaseki like an orphan and pitch their tent with the incoming champion!
Do you seriously think Obaseki can pull it off?
Well, I think it’s nearer almost impossible than a remote possibility.
Let’s analyse these hypothetical factors:
One, Obaseki can’t win the election on the platform of any other party aside the 2 mainstream parties, APC and PDP;
Two, if he’s denied APC ticket and pushed out of the party with his supporters, PDP will never field him, which leaves only one other viable option, a third force party. The problem with this option is that these are shell parties with little or no structure on ground statewide except in the centre and subsequently, this positioning can hardly galvanise support to win a state assembly seat let alone governorship election;
Three, I fear extraneous factors playing a high hand in Edo’s political skirmishes. Obaseki went to see President Buhari recently in Aso Rock and in the company of a few other governors. Hypothetically, he could have been so ambitious to cut a deal with the Aso Rock cabal who would be happy to see Oshiomole cut down to size because of his rumoured support for Tinubu’s presidential ambition in 2023 which so far runs contrary to the cabal’s desire. The enemy of my enemy could be my friend, even if only on temporal basis, as long as I can use his hand to draw a snake from its comfort hole and snuff life out of it!
This ‘mafia manager’s’ theory aptly sums up whatever deal Obaseki might have cut with the cabal.
Edo 2020 to all intent and purpose will be a very tough one to call and the gladiators will go out for the jugular, trust me on this prediction!